Important reminder: the rising trend of aluminum price remains unchanged, breaking ￥25000（$3894/ton） is getting closer and closer!

From the supply side, with the strengthening of local energy consumption dual control and the implementation of production and power restriction policies, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be further limited. At the same time, the rising price of raw materials also makes the cost of electrolytic aluminum move up steadily, which will form a strong support for the price of electrolytic aluminum.

From the demand side, although the current aluminum downstream processing industry has slowed down due to the impact of local power and production restriction policies, the terminal demand remains strong, especially the booming production and sales of new energy vehicles will further drive the sharp rise of aluminum profile demand, superimposing that it has entered the traditional peak consumption season. Therefore, the overall demand will continue to grow. In the case of continuous supply constraints and steady demand growth, although the aluminum price will callback in the short term, it will continue to oscillate upward steadily in the medium and long term.

From the perspective of aluminum fundamentals, the supply side disturbance is relatively long-term, and with the Q4 heating season and the arrival of the dry season in Southwest China, the dual control of domestic energy consumption and the pressure of power shortage increase unabated, the limited output of the smelter is difficult to release in the short term, and it is possible to reduce production and expand production capacity, and it is difficult to finalize new production projects. The tightening of the consumer side is a phased impact. The consumer demand will be delayed but will not disappear due to power restriction, and the rapid development of the new energy sector also has a certain support for the long-term demand for aluminum. If the pressure of power rationing is relieved in the later stage, due to the large production elasticity of the processing plant, the aluminum output is expected to recover rapidly, while the recovery cycle of the smelter is long, and the decline of electrolytic aluminum output is difficult to recover, and the aluminum market will continue to be in short supply. Therefore, it is expected that the callback space of aluminum price is limited, and the aluminum price will maintain a strong operation in October, with an operation range of 22000-25000 yuan / ton.（$3426-$3894/ton）